why waiting could cost you millions in vancouver land
In a market defined by policy shifts, rising capital costs, and unpredictable timelines, hesitation is no longer a safe bet.
Most landowners aren’t deciding between good and bad—they’re choosing between uncertainty now and uncertainty later. But as we explored in our previous article how vancouver landowners can navigate rising risk and uncertainty, not all uncertainty is created equal. Some risks you can price. Others you can only prepare for.
This article applies the decision-making tools from that previous article—Knightian uncertainty, Bayesian thinking, loss aversion, and opportunity cost—to show why holding off “until things calm down” might be the most expensive choice you make.
the policy pendulum isn’t slowing down
City planning cycles used to move slowly. Today, they’re shifting underfoot. Between the Vancouver Plan, Housing Accelerator funding, and provincial enabling legislation, we’ve entered a phase of Knightian uncertainty—conditions where we don’t just lack clarity, we lack any way to assign reliable probabilities.
Zoning changes, density bonusing, and approval fast-tracking might help or hurt your site—but they won’t wait for your timeline. Landowners who assume tomorrow will look like last year are playing an outdated game. The rules are being rewritten now.
Key Take-away: In a Knightian environment, flexibility is your best hedge—waiting for clarity is no longer a safe strategy.
financing is no longer predictable
Gone are the days of stable borrowing costs and dependable term sheets. Credit availability, construction timelines, and lender appetites are shifting monthly. Even highly qualified borrowers are seeing offers come with shorter windows, tighter conditions, and lower leverage.
If you’re holding land while waiting for rates to “normalize,” you’re betting on a macroeconomic forecast you can’t control. A better approach? Use Bayesian updating. Adjust your expectations each time the Bank of Canada speaks, not just when your project hits a milestone.
The smartest landowners aren’t waiting for perfect conditions. They’re exploring phased structuring, strategic partnerships, and bridge-to-densification models that preserve optionality while still moving forward.
Key Take-away: Conditions change quickly—your financing strategy should update just as often.
the silent threat of tax and policy drag
Tax policy doesn’t announce itself until it’s already affecting your net proceeds. We’ve already seen shifts in school tax, capital gains inclusion rates, and speculation measures—all of which can significantly reduce what a future sale actually delivers to your family.
Waiting “just one more year” may feel prudent—but Prospect Theory tells us that people tend to delay action out of fear of loss, even when the cost of inaction is higher. Building your plan around possible tax headwinds means you’re controlling what you can, rather than reacting too late.
Ask yourself: If a new tax rule were announced tomorrow, would you be prepared—or caught mid-deal?
Key Take-away: Unpriced policy risk can erode value faster than the market—plan ahead while you still have options.
the real cost of doing nothing
Every year you hold under-utilized land, you absorb carrying costs, give up development leverage, and reduce your ability to act when the window opens. That’s not just patience—it’s opportunity cost.
Many landowners overestimate the value of waiting because they’ve already invested in a site. But as we discussed in [how vancouver landowners can navigate rising risk and uncertainty], the sunk cost fallacy makes it harder to walk away—even when your capital could earn more elsewhere.
Smart landowners are using decision trees to model possible outcomes—applying now versus waiting, assembling now versus staying single-lot. These aren’t abstract exercises; they produce real numbers you can use to protect and grow your position.
Key Take-away: Doing nothing is still a decision—and often the most expensive one.
more in this series
This article is part of a four-part series on navigating land strategy in today’s uncertain environment. Explore the full set:
How Vancouver Landowners Can Navigate Rising Risk and Uncertainty - Understand the key concepts—Knightian uncertainty, Bayesian updates, loss aversion, and more—that guide clear decision-making in volatile markets.
You’re reading: Why Waiting Could Cost You Millions in Vancouver Land - Why hesitation isn’t neutral—and how inaction quietly erodes value.
Winners and Losers in Vancouver’s Next Policy Shake-Up - Real-world scenarios showing how different strategies perform when the rules change.
The Smart Owner’s Playbook for Timing, Structure, and Strategy - Concrete moves to protect value, unlock potential, and structure with confidence—even when the future is foggy.
want help stress-testing your site?
Whether you want to run a risk matrix, map a decision tree, or simply talk through what today’s conditions mean for your land, I’m here to help. Book a confidential valuation call, video chat, or lunch and let’s map your smartest next step—before the next policy shift changes the rules again.
more about this topic
Current Opportunities
